The global offshore installed capacity has experienced a tenfold increase in the last decade, marking approximately 30% annual growth since 2010. This capacity accounts for 6% and 3% of the 2030 and 2050 Net Zero global targets as specified by IEA, respectively. Forecast data for 2025-2030 indicates offshore wind capacity rising from 16 GW in 2025 to 34 GW, with offshore moving from 11.8% of new capacity to 17.5% of new capacity by the end of the decade.
India’s clean energy transition is entering a critical phase, with offshore wind emerging as a promising yet underdeveloped area. Despite having a coastline spanning over 7,600 km and a technical potential of 70 GW, no offshore wind capacity has been commissioned thus far. However, recent policy and financial interventions suggest that the sector is beginning to shift from aspiration to execution.
Strategic Significance and Status of Offshore Wind
As is evident, implementation of offshore wind plays a crucial role in a country’s electricity demand management, energy security and achieving RE targets. Scaling offshore wind holds transformative potential for India.
- Energy Security: Reduces reliance on imported fossil fuels and diversifies the renewable energy mix.
- Grid Balancing: Provides steady output during evening hours, complementing solar generation.
- Economic Stimulus: Could generate up to 60,000 jobs through a localized supply chain as per study by GWEC.
As of 2025, India’s offshore wind sector remains at a pre-commercial stage. Two key tenders as shown in Table 1 – the Gujarat (500 MW) and Tamil Nadu (4 GW) projects – are early indicators of progress, backed by regulatory instruments such as the Offshore Wind Energy Lease Rules 2023 and the MNRE’s Offshore Wind Strategy Paper (2023).
Persistent Challenges
Despite a clearer policy environment, several roadblocks remain:
- High Costs: The LCOE for offshore wind is estimated at ~INR10–12/kWh, which is higher than that of onshore wind or solar.
- Infrastructure Gaps: India lacks offshore-specific ports, availability of vessels for transportation, and domestic wind-blade manufacturing market and supply chain issues.
- Regulatory Hurdles: Multi-agency approvals and complex environmental clearances slow down progress.
- Financial Risks: Long project timelines and uncertain returns deter investment.
Learning Rates and Cost Reduction Pathways
Offshore wind technology is mature enough to deploy in developing countries as diffusion of experiences among various countries affects learnings and skill. Globally, offshore wind costs have declined significantly due to economies of scale, technological innovation substantial R&D efforts to drive improvements in manufacturing, logistics, installation, and operational processes, and maturing domestic supply chains – a trend captured by the concept of the Learning Rate (LR), which represents the percentage project cost reduction achieved for every doubling of cumulative installed capacity. The learning rate formula is: Log Y = a + b*(log X).
Where:
Y is the unit cost, measured as the cost per MW of installed capacity of the technology.
a represents the initial implementation phase of the technology.
b is the learning rate coefficient.
X refers to the cumulative installed capacity of the technology.
For example, in Europe, the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) for offshore wind fell from over €150/MWh in 2012 to under €50/MWh by 2022 (IRENA, 2023), driven by larger turbines, optimized planning, and competitive procurement mechanisms such as Contracts for Difference (CfDs). Similarly, China achieved substantial cost reductions through aggressive localization of supply chains and streamlined permitting processes (IEA, 2021).
Research studies estimate the global offshore wind learning rate at ~3% between 1991 and 2008, with projections indicating a potential rise to approx. -6% to -10% through 2030, which could result in a 33% cost reduction in that period. Positive LR represents cost of technology increased due to learning transition from onshore wind technology to specific offshore wind design standards.
India initiated early-stage activities such as prefeasibility studies led by NIWE, NIOT, and GWEC beginning in 2015, and launched its first 1 GW tender in 2018. While actual deployment was null, these efforts reflect foundational progress in ‘learning by research’. Based on the Single Factor Learning Experience (SFLE) model used in global assessments, India’s offshore wind learning rate is expected to modestly improve from 2015 to 2030 from -3% to -12%. By actively engaging in research and development, localization, and large-scale deployment, India has the potential to reduce offshore wind costs by approximately 35% by 2030, as illustrated in Figure 1. This reduction would align the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCoE) for offshore wind with that of other renewable energy technologies.
Strategic Priorities for India
To successfully scale offshore wind, India must address systemic constraints with a targeted, adaptive strategy. Currently, India’s offshore wind LCOE is high due to first-mover disadvantages. However, cost reductions are achievable as projects scale:
- Leverage Global Partnerships: Tap into international technology, capital, and experience through joint ventures, R&D partnerships, and knowledge exchange platforms.
- Tailored Market Mechanisms: In spite of provided viability gap funds of ~INR 6800 Cr, For the initial 1 GW, an additional ~INR 9,000 crore would be required to bring costs at par with the Round The Clock (RTC) electricity benchmark price of INR 5.5 per kWh, compared to the current offshore wind cost of INR 10-15 per kWh to derisk early investments and improve the bankability of offshore wind projects.
- Early Involvement of key Stakeholders: State utilities must be engaged in power procurement planning to ensure timely offtake and grid integration. Similarly, proactively engage coastal communities, especially fishers, to mitigate social and ecological conflicts, with compensation and livelihood restoration where required.
- Infrastructure Development: Upgrade ports, invest in domestic vessel capability, and coordinate grid expansion – including subsea cabling – with project timelines.
- Streamlined Permitting and Institutional Capacity: Establish a single-window clearance mechanism and build institutional capacity at both central and state levels for permitting and regulation.
Conclusion
Offshore wind in India stands at a defining crossroads – rich in potential, complex in execution, but critical to its net-zero ambitions. With policy foundations now in place, the focus must shift to accelerated execution, guided by global lessons and grounded in India’s local context.
Payal Saxena is a Management Consultant (Utilities – Strategy and Consulting) at a US-based Strategy & Consulting Firm. She has 9 years of experience in Renewable Energy, Energy Transition, and Utilities. She has worked extensively with Global Utilities, IPPs, and Industries on developing Renewable and Decarbonisation strategies, policy advocacy initiatives, techno-economic analysis, business and operating models, to facilitate a low carbon economy, systemic efficiency, and net zero transition.
