Recently, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has updated its landmark Net Zero Roadmap, which was originally published in 2021. Although things are still going very slow, IEA is keeping hope to limiting global warming to 1.50C.
The report states that driving greenhouse gas emissions from the world’s energy sector to ‘net zero’ and limiting global warming to 1.50C remains possible due to the record growth of key clean energy technologies, though momentum needs to increase rapidly in many areas.
IEA’s new Roadmap has set out a global pathway to keep the 1.50C goal in reach, providing a comprehensive update to the groundbreaking original report and has served as an essential benchmark for policy makers, industry, the financial sector and civil society. The 2023 update has incorporated the significant changes to the energy landscape in the past two years, including the post-pandemic economic rebound and the extraordinary growth in some clean energy technologies. It has also focused on the increased investment in fossil fuels and stubbornly high emissions.
According to the United Nations (UN), “Transitioning to a ‘net-zero’ world is one of the greatest challenges humankind has faced. It calls for nothing less than a complete transformation of how we produce, consume, and move about. The energy sector is the source of around three-quarters of greenhouse gas emissions today and holds the key to averting the worst effects of climate change. Replacing polluting coal, gas and oil-fired power with energy from renewable sources, such as wind or solar, would dramatically reduce carbon emissions.”
IEA’s recent observation
With the above backdrop, IEA now finds that since 2021, record growth in solar power capacity and electric car sales are in line with a pathway towards ‘net zero’ emissions globally by mid-century, as are industry plans for the roll-out of new manufacturing capacity for them. This is significant, since those two technologies alone deliver one-third of the emissions reductions between today and 2030 in the pathway. Clean energy innovation has also been delivering more options and lowering technology costs. In the IEA’s original Roadmap in 2021, technologies not-till-then available on the market delivered nearly half of the emissions reductions needed for ‘net zero’ in 2050. That number has now fallen to around 35% in this year’s update.
What is ‘net zero’ and why is it so important?
UN has put it in a very simple manner. According to their explanation: ‘net zero’ means cutting greenhouse gas emissions to as close to zero as possible, with any remaining emissions re-absorbed from the atmosphere, by oceans and forests for instance.
The science shows clearly that in order to avert the worst impacts of climate change and preserve a livable planet, global temperature increase needs to be limited to 1.50C above pre-industrial levels. Currently, the earth is already about 1.10C warmer than it was in the late 1800s, and emissions continue to rise. To keep global warming to no more than 1.50C – as called for in the Paris Agreement – emissions need to be reduced by 45% by 2030 and reach ‘net zero’ by 2050.
How is the progress since Paris Agreement?
The Paris Agreement was adopted by 196 Parties at the UN Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris, France, on 12 December 2015. It entered into force on 4 November 2016.
IEA’s recent update categorically communicates that yet bolder action is necessary this decade. The global renewable power capacity has to triple by 2030. Meanwhile, the annual rate of energy efficiency improvements doubles, sales of electric vehicles and heat pumps rise sharply, and energy sector methane emissions fall by 75%. These strategies, which are based on proven and often cost-effective technologies for lowering emissions, together deliver more than 80% of the reductions needed by the end of the decade.
So, we have around seven years in hand, in which we will have to accomplish the charted actions. However, how far it is possible that is quite debatable at this moment.
IEA’s call for coming together
IEA Executive Director Dr. Fatih Birol has said, “Keeping alive the goal of limiting global warming to 1.50C requires the world to come together quickly. The good news is we know what we need to do – and how to do it. Our 2023 Net Zero Roadmap, based on the latest data and analysis, shows a path forward. But we also have a very clear message: Strong international cooperation is crucial to success. Governments need to separate climate from geopolitics, given the scale of the challenge at hand.”
The Roadmap outlines a route to ‘net zero’ emissions for the global energy sector by 2050 but recognises the importance of fostering an equitable transition that takes different national circumstances into account. For example, advanced economies reach ‘net zero’ sooner to allow emerging and developing economies more time. And the ‘net zero’ pathway achieves full access to modern forms of energy for all by 2030 through annual investment of nearly USD 45 billion per year – just over 1% of energy sector investment.
In this context, I would like to draw every reader’s attention on a BBC report by Journalist Georgina Rannard, dated November 14, 2022. Some of the significant statements from her report: i) “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has caused a large amount of warming gases to be released into the atmosphere, Ukraine has claimed at the UN COP27 climate summit in Egypt.” ii) “The war has led directly to emissions of 33 million tons of greenhouse gases that warm the Earth’s atmosphere, claimed Ruslan Strilets, Ukraine’s environmental protection minister.” iii) “…senior figures at the summit (COP 27) warned that the key goal of trying to limit the average rise in temperatures to 1.50C may be under threat.”
Dr. Fatih Birol, Executive Director, International Energy Agency (IEA)
I highly appreciate the role of the IEA Executive Director Dr. Birol, keeping an eye on the potential calamity, he is ringing the bell of warning and showing the path to avoid such a terrible situation. However, whether the governments will separate climate from geopolitics – that is the 64 thousand dollars question at this moment.
What is immediately required?
The IEA report urges, staying on track means almost all countries must move forward their targeted ‘net zero’ dates. It also hinges on mobilising a significant increase in investment, especially in emerging and developing economies. In the new zero pathway, global clean energy spending rises from USD 1.8 trillion in 2023 to USD 4.5 trillion annually by the early 2030s.
In the updated ‘net zero’ scenario, a huge policy-driven ramping up of clean energy capacity drives fossil fuel demand 25% lower by 2030, reducing emissions by 35% compared with the all-time high recorded in 2022. By 2050, fossil fuel demand falls by 80%. As a result, no new long-lead-time upstream oil and gas projects are needed. Neither are new coal mines, mine extensions or new unabated coal plants.
Nonetheless, continued investment is required in some existing oil & gas assets and already approved projects. Sequencing the increase in clean energy investment and the decline of fossil fuel supply investment is vital if damaging price spikes or supply gluts are to be avoided.
More resilient and diverse supply chains for clean energy technologies and the critical minerals needed to make them – are key to building an energy sector with ‘net zero’ emissions, according to the report. However, it is equally vital that supply chains remain open, given the pace and scope of clean energy development required.
IEA’s cautionary statements
Considering the present global situation, many readers will feel interested in knowing – what will happen if we fail to achieve the ‘net zero’ target?
The IEA report stresses the importance of stronger international cooperation to limiting global warming to 1.50C. It warns that a failure to sufficiently step up ambition and implementation between now and 2030 would create additional climate risks and make achieving the 1.5 °C goal dependant on the massive deployment of carbon removal technologies, which are expensive and unproven at scale.
In a delayed-action-case that the report examines, a failure to expand clean energy quickly enough by 2030 means nearly 5 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide would have to be removed from the atmosphere every year during the second half of this century. If carbon removal technologies fail to deliver at such scale, returning the temperature to 1.50C would not be possible.
Conclusion
Everything is possible, if the right political will is there. The governments have to act together on saving the world leaving their petty interests. Whether they will do that in saving the global humankind that cannot be predicted at this moment. However, by setting a target to achieve about 50% cumulative electric power installed capacity by 2030 from non- fossil fuel-based energy resources, our country India has taken a massive measure in this regard.
But, as it is a global issue, all governments have to come forward and act together. Otherwise, as Dr. Birol points out, “Removing carbon from the atmosphere is very costly. We must do everything possible to stop putting it there in the first place. The pathway to 1.5 °C has narrowed in the past two years, but clean energy technologies are keeping it open.”
COP28 climate summit in Dubai will be held from Thu, 30 Nov, 2023 – Tue, 12 Dec, 2023. It will provide a vital opportunity to commit to stronger ambition and implementation in the remaining years of this critical decade. I hope, it will be successful in building an international momentum to address key global targets such as tripling renewable capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030.
By P. K. Chatterjee (PK)
