Next UN Climate Change Conference (UNFCCC COP 29) will be held from November 11 to 22, in Baku, Azerbaijan. According to the COP Presidencies Troika, it intends to host a series of high-level political convenings to assess barriers to NDC (Nationally Determined Contributions) development, including meetings during the Germany-hosted 15th Petersberg Climate Dialogue, the 60th sessions of the UNFCCC Subsidiary Bodies (SBs), the 79th session of the UN General Assembly (UNGA), and a special session at the opening of the 29th session of the Conference Parties to the UNFCCC (COP 29). These meetings will discuss the ‘quantity and quality of support needed’ to ensure NDCs, the next round of which is due in 2025, can deliver just climate transitions aligned with the 1.5°C goal.
The Presidencies will also work with ‘key thematic and political platforms’ such as the Group of 20 (G20), ‘to channel existing knowledge and resources towards ambitious NDC development’.
At this juncture, we need to retrospect the decided steps forward in the global effort to address the climate emergency. We recall that COP 28 (held in Dubai, the United Arab Emirates from November 30 to December 13, 2023) closed with an agreement that signaled the ‘beginning of the end’ of the fossil fuel era by
laying the ground for a swift, just and equitable transition, underpinned by deep emissions cuts and scaled-up finance.
In the event, President Dr. Sultan Al Jaber said, “We have language on fossil fuel in the (COP) final agreement for the first time ever.” It clearly pointed to the direction of travel in the energy transition…
“Today, we’re raising the alarm. As the custodian for tracking progress of the UAE Consensus energy goals, we must flag significant gaps. The COP28 goals of tripling renewables and doubling energy efficiency are key enablers for our global efforts to keep 1.5°C within reach but we risk missing them. The next NDCs must mark a turning point and bring the world back on track.”
– Francesco La Camera, Director-General, IRENA
The call on nations to transition away from fossil fuels was part of a decision by nearly 200 parties on the world’s first ‘global stocktake’ to ratchet up climate action before the end of the decade – with the overarching aim to keep the global temperature limit of 1.5°C within reach. “Whilst we didn’t turn the page on the fossil fuel era in Dubai, this outcome is the beginning of the end. Now all governments and businesses need to turn these pledges into real-economy outcomes, without delay,” said UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell.
“The global goals of tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling annual energy efficiency improvement by 2030 set out in the UAE Consensus are not just benchmarks – they are essential enablers of all global efforts to achieving 1.5°C and advancing sustainable prosperity for all. The opportunity is there but we need more nations to step up to the plate by including specific renewable energy and infrastructure targets in their upcoming NDCs, incentivizing private investment, and making it easier to develop and deploy projects. We need to think bigger, act bolder – and collectively move faster on our energy transition journey.”
– Dr. Sultan Al Jaber, President, COP28
Where are we standing now?
According to the recent International Renewable Energy Agency’s (IRENA’s) official tracking report of UAE Consensus energy goals, “Despite an unprecedented acceleration in renewable energy deployment in 2023, progress falls short to triple renewables by 2030. Current national plans and targets are set to deliver only half of the required growth in renewable power by 2030. Furthermore, annual investment in renewable capacity would have to triple, from a new record high of USD 570 billion in 2023 to USD 1.5 trillion every year between 2024 and 2030, confirms the first official progress report of the landmark energy goals established by the UAE Consensus at COP28 in Dubai. Tripling renewable power capacity and doubling of energy efficiency by 2030 are critical enablers for keeping the 1.50C goal within reach.”
The report also states that to meet the global goals, installed renewable capacity would have to grow from 3.9 terawatt (TW) today to 11.2 TW by 2030, requiring an additional 7.3 TW in less than six years. Yet, current national plans are projected to leave a global collective gap of 3.8 TW by 2030, falling short of the goal by 34%. In addition, the annual energy intensity improvement rate must increase from 2% in 2022 to 4% on yearly base up to 2030. This will require faster progress in efficiency measures and electrification across multiple sectors, including transport, building and industry.
What needs to be done?
As per IRENA’s finding: the progress report concludes that to deliver the UAE Consensus goals on the ground, significant advances will be required across the key enablers of the energy transition, namely: infrastructure and system operation, policy and regulation, supply chains, skills and capacities, finance, and international collaboration.
“This important set of findings by IRENA and GRA includes vital insights on accelerating the global energy transition. Central to our plan to enhance ambition and enable action are a number of Presidency-led initiatives that contribute to global climate action at COP29, and which reflect the outlook and opportunities captured in this report. These include driving the agenda forward through the creation of green energy zones and green energy corridors, strengthening electric grids, increasing energy storage capacity, and development of clean hydrogen. To take tangible steps and turn these recommendations into reality, we are working closely with international partners to ensure that commitments translate into tangible outcomes that benefit all nations, including those most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The time for action is now. We call on all stakeholders – governments, businesses and civil society – to intensify their efforts and deliver progress in support of these critical goals.”
– Mukhtar Babayev, President-Designate, COP29
Emerging and developing economies continue to face financing gaps that undermine access to capital-intensive energy transition technologies. Renewable power investments in Africa declined by 47% between 2022 and 2023. Sub-Saharan Africa received 40 times less than the world average per capita transition-related investment.
Reducing this gap involves securing financing at better terms by mitigating country risks and increasing the availability of concessional finance, mostly from multilateral and bilateral development funds and financing institutions and philanthropies.
“While the momentum behind renewable energy is unprecedented, it’s clear that we are still falling short of where we need to be by 2030. Industry has proven time and again that we can deliver – and even surpass – expectations when the right frameworks and policies are in place. Now is the time for governments to seize the opportunity of the NDC review, to set ambitious, specific and actionable plans that bridge the current gap and achieves the global 3xRenewables target by 2030. Our message is clear: Now Deliver Change.”
– Bruce Douglas, CEO, Global Renewables Alliance
International collaboration will be crucial to better channel funds to achieve climate, development and industrialisation goals for a more equitable world. Agreement on a robust New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) of climate finance at COP29 will be vital for enhancing financial support for climate action as well as inspiring ambitious targets in the NDC 3.0 submission process in 2025.
“The report of the International Renewable Energy Agency on the Global Renewables and Energy Efficiency Pledge provides critical signals that we need to increase our ambitions and actions in the fight against climate change and the energy transition. To achieve tripling target requires countries to enhance their renewable energy ambitions, update their Nationally Determined Contributions, and increase investments. In this regard, COP29 will build on the COP28 agreement by advancing initiatives and priorities that accelerate the development of renewable energy potential and remove barriers to its expansion.”
– Parviz Shahbazov Ogtay, Energy Minister, Azerbaijan
Conclusion
Even after so much brain storming, it is clear that many countries are still far from taking up the issue of global warming seriously. However, transformation from the fossil fuels to renewables is not an easy task. It requires a huge amount of initial investment, which is the primary cause behind the go-slow of many developing countries.
Technologically developed countries have to play a pivotal role in the process of global transformation from fossil-based to renewables-based power generation – where access to renewable energy harnessing equipment need to be eased.
Also, every government of developing and under-developed country has to ease the taxation protocol to allow smooth entry of the renewable energy equipment to its country.
Government subsidies to fossil fuel-based power systems (wherever applicable) must be redirected to encourage the renewables industry.
Global goal of tripling renewables needs at least USD 1.5 Trillion investment per year – as has been suggested by the IRENA’s recent report.
By P. K. Chatterjee (PK)
